T here are clear signs inflation is re-accelerating in 2026 , and expectations have been revised upward, though there’s still a wide range depending on the scenario. 📈 What’s happening right now (2026 data) U.S. CPI jumped to ~3.3% in March 2026 , up sharply from 2.4% just a month earlier Monthly inflation spiked 0.9% , the fastest since 2022 The main driver: energy (especially gasoline) tied to geopolitical shocks Even the Fed’s preferred measure (PCE) is running around ~3.5% YoY , still well above the 2% target 👉 Bottom line: inflation bottomed in early 2026 and is now moving back up , largely due to energy + second-order effects. 🔮 Updated inflation expectations for 2026 1. “Base case” (Fed / mainstream economists) Fed forecast: ~2.7% inflation in 2026 (recently revised UP) J.P. Morgan: ~3.2% U.S. core inflation Market-implied expectations: ~3.3% CPI 👉 Consensus has shifted from “back to 2%” → “stuck around ~3%” 2. Upside risk scenario (incre...
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